THE PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY

H. N. Burdett

Issues and indicators in a presidential campaign seven months before election day can become blurred and even radically changed before ballots are finally cast. Unknown and unforeseeable events can and inevitably will erupt in the interim that could go a long way toward determining the outcome. Nonetheless, while perhaps not yet engraved in stone, battle lines have certainly been scratched in sand. Clearly, both President Obama and his presumptive Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, know all too well what they have to do.

In what a consensus of the punditocracy insists will be the most unsavory and most expensive election in modern national campaign annals, Romney's most demanding tasks are to: (1) Persuade voters that, despite his solid position on the pedestal of privilege, he understands their pain even if he does not actually share it; (2) Bend over backwards - and even stand on his head - to prove he is emphatically not declaring war on women.

Conversely, Obama must convince the electorate that his continuing stewardship is the best tonic for accelerating the pace of a gradually improving but far from acceptable economy - no cinch sell at a time of $4-a-gallon and rising gasoline that translates into just getting to and from work, as well as concomitant soaring costs of food, clothing and shelter.

During his first term, the president utilized his extraordinary oratorical skills to justifiably blame his predecessor for passing to him the worst mess since Hercules was challenged to sweep the Augean stables - two wars and a precariously collapsing economy. But this familiar litany is unlikely to resonate for entrusting him with four more years in the White House.

Obama had to be heartened by a recent Washington Post-ABC poll showing his double-digit advantages over Romney on matters ranging from handling of international affairs to addressing women's issues. The president was also somewhat comfortably, though less impressively, ahead of Romney on handling terrorism, social issues like abortion and same-sex marriage, and a clearer vision for the future.

While the poll verified the perception that Romney has an uphill battle, it further reflected chinks in Obama's armor for the challenger and his super-PAC allies to exploit. The probable GOP nominee held slim but telling advantages over the incumbent in the areas of handling both the economy and energy policy. Romney's only double-digit lead over Obama was an eye-popping 51 to 38 percent in handling the federal budget deficit.

Conducted between April 5-8, the poll indicated that 15 percent more registered voters felt that "unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy" is a greater problem than "over-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity." Though the poll revealed that voters prefer Romney over Obama on dealing with the economy, energy policy and the federal budget deficit, the president held a 10-point lead over his probable challenger in "protecting the middle class" and 12-point advantage in understanding people's economic problems.

Seven months may appear to be time enough for Romney to build on his advantages and re-boot where he has fallen short. But he must simultaneously coalesce his own divided party, particularly the alienated evangelical Christian and tea party factions. The distrust of these two principal segments of the GOP prevented Romney from nailing down the nomination much earlier on, despite his decided advantages in campaign funds, organization and key endorsements.

The hard-core conservative Republican base has been unwavering in its conviction that Romney is a Massachusetts moderate who will flip-flip on any issue - from abortion to gun control - to get elected, but that he shares neither its values nor its ideology.

Even should Romney successfully navigate the minefield of concerns of the disaffected elements within his own party, he must somehow evaporate Obama's robust 19-point lead among women voters so that it more closely aligns with his eight-point advantage over the president with male voters. If the election were held during the first week of this month, women voters would have fueled the Obama victory over Romney by 51 to 44 percent, the poll reveals. But it will be held in November. In the interim, hearts and minds have been known to change and, often enough, quite dramatically.

Should the election come right down to the wire, which most pundits predict it will, independent voters will be the key. And here, Romney holds a slim 48 to 46 percent edge over the president. While it is a statistical wash, these numbers will be well worth watching ever more closely in future polls as the months roll by.

###